[kplato] PERT distribution/risk

[Dag Andersen]

Hi, need some guidance on this.

I find the following in the requirement spec:
<quote>
Durations are calculated for a task based on the resources assigned to 
it. The following factors need to be taken into account:
The effort required from each resource
The risk associated with the resource/task pairing
The availability schedule of each resource
The other task commitments of resources

Note  [Jim Sabatke]
  Allow task durations to be calculated from the following columns:
 
         "Optimistic Hours"    
         "Pessimistic Hours"  
         "Expected Hours"   
         "Risk"    
         "Duration"
 
         The "Duration" would be calculated like:
 
         "Risk" = Low        Duration = (OH + 4EH +PH) / 6
         "Risk" = High      Duration = (OH + 4EH + 2PH) / 7
         "Risk" = None      OH = EH = PH = "Duration"  
 
         If Duration is entered, then OH, PH, EH all will be set to 
 "Duration" and "Risk = None"
</quote>

It's the Risk that makes me uncertain. AFAICS it's a way to handle the 
fact that some people are created more equal than others and hence, 
that the time it takes to complete a task is dependent on the 
specific resource(s) assigned to do the work.

Selecting a "High" risk thus effectively says: I don't think the 
people assigned to this task is able to finish it within the normal 
estimate, so I increase the estimate.

Also I think the risk must be interpreted to be for "resources 
(plural)/task pairing" and not for "resource/task pairing" as stated 
above? (Maybe what was meant anyway?)

IMHO it's not the estimate that should be modified but the efficiency 
of the resource. To register this may be sensitive, though, and might 
even be illegal in certain countries?

-- 
Mvh,
Dag Andersen