[kplato] definitions of effort and risk

[Jim Sabatke]

Actually, because E(p) is usually a good bit larger than E(o), the 
distribution is skewed.
Also, come to think of it, we should be calculating a confidence value 
so that we can multiply them up the chain to obtain an ovall project 
confidence.

Jim

bilbo wrote:

>On 21 Jun 2001, at 20:15, Jim Sabatke wrote:
>
>>I guess the tabs didn't expand well for you.  Sorry.
>>
>
>My problem, probably, but I try to avoid tabs :-)
>
>>Most PM software expects the user to enter either:
>>
>>1.    E(p), E(e) and E(o)
>>2.    E(p), E(o) and a std. dev. value, which is way above most PM's 
>>(IMHO) to use correctly.
>>
>Isn't that assuming symmetrical distribution of E(p) and E(o)?
>
>>You are correct that the values would be entered based on experience.  I 
>>am actually trying to create something more intuitive to the average PM 
>>by adding a risk factor column.  The PM wouldn't need the math, just a 
>>comparative judgement call (high/low/normal risk).
>>
>
>The sw person in me wants to try to fit E(p,o,e) to a curve and 
>calculate the risk from that. I don't think that's going to work.
>
>Thanks for explaining that.
>regards,
>        Bill
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-- 
Jim Sabatke
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Kernel - 2.4.0
http://www.execpc.com/~jsabatke

"People tell me that I'm fading fast, that I can't last the whole night through" Janis Ian