[kplato] definitions of effort and risk

[Jim Sabatke]

I guess the tabs didn't expand well for you.  Sorry.

Most PM software expects the user to enter either:

1.    E(p), E(e) and E(o)
2.    E(p), E(o) and a std. dev. value, which is way above most PM's 
(IMHO) to use correctly.

You are correct that the values would be entered based on experience.  I 
am actually trying to create something more intuitive to the average PM 
by adding a risk factor column.  The PM wouldn't need the math, just a 
comparative judgement call (high/low/normal risk).

Jim

bilbo wrote:

>On 21 Jun 2001, at 19:26, Jim Sabatke wrote:
>
>>Normally, the effort column would be modified to include risk.
>>
>>By entering values in the Pessimistic, Expected and Optimistic columns; 
>>and by including a column for risk level (confidence level) the effort 
>>value would be calculated.  In the project management discipline, the 
>>effort value is normally calculated as follows (with a 99% confidence 
>>level):
>>
>>                Effort                           + 4 Effort            
>>      + Effort
>>                        pessimistic                       Expected    
>>            Optimistic
>>          -------------------------------------------------
>>                                                                 6
>>
>>
>>There are other calculations if the risk is greater, which it normally 
>>is for software
>>
>>                E(p) + 4 E(e) + 2 E(o)                                
>>E(p) + 4 E(e) + E(o)
>>                ----------------            or even       ---------------
>>                                7                                        
>>                          3.2
>>
>>The last formula generally gives a 95% confidence level.  It is possible 
>>easily calculate std. dev. from the formulas and do a Z score lookup to 
>>get an exact confidence level; but the formulas listed are considered 
>>adequate for project work.
>>
>>Accordingly, the expected effort field should have the first entry.  The 
>>effort field will be the expected effort value unless the other (p) and 
>>(o) efforts and confidence level have values entered; then the effort 
>>value will be computed.
>>
>>Does this make more sense?
>>
>
>Yes - even though the calcs above aren't very clear - that's the fault 
>of ascii email. I'd just read 
>http://www.koffice.org/kplato/docs/x94.html, so I can see what you 
>mean.
>
>The thing I'm wondering about is how/when to assign a task to high 
>or normal risk, presumably this is a judgement call. Is it possible to 
>use the values of E(e), E(p) and E(o) to determine a suggested risk 
>which can then be overwritten?
>
>
>
>regards,
>        Bill
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-- 
Jim Sabatke
SuSE 7.1 Linux
Kernel - 2.4.0
http://www.execpc.com/~jsabatke

"People tell me that I'm fading fast, that I can't last the whole night through" Janis Ian