Forecast Really Off - Where best to report and how

[Joel Madero]

Hi Thomas -

Finally got around to playing with the data in LibreOffice and
normalizing to hide the actual amounts. What I did was looked at the
last ~2 years (January 2018 to present). I have included my ODS file
with a simple graph. Basically two columns, first is month-over-month
change which generally hovers right around 98%-104% (which makes sense
as net worth month over month doesn't change that much). Next column is
more revealing as that is the % of the initial base value in January
2018. From that you can see that there is a clear trend upwards and that
over the 32 month period my household net worth is 200% of what it was
in January 2018. Furthermore, month-over-month 25 of the 33 months
(excluding base month in 2018) were positive changes to my household net
worth. Yet, the default net worth chart shows a clear /downward/ trend
which makes no sense. Including that chart also (not including values).

Something seems very strange.

Thanks!

On 8/16/20 11:50 PM, Thomas Baumgart wrote:
> Joel,
>
> On Montag, 17. August 2020 07:04:20 CEST Joel Madero wrote:
>
>> Hi All,
>>
>> The forecast feature is really off. My net worth has gone up every month
>> for the past several years yet KMyMoney shows graphs and tables that
>> predict my net worth to go down. I'm not willing to share my actual net
>> worth but I'm willing to share a percentage over time. Forecast has
>> never worked well so I'm not sure if I should report to mailing list
>> (because it's still way off in development build) or if I should report
>> to bugzilla. Let me know where and what information would be useful to
>> share in order for it to be useful to developers.
> That sounds very strange. Since the forecast support two very different
> modes it would be interesting, which one of them you are using:
>
> a) Scheduled, based on scheduled transactions
> b) History, based on the recent history
>
> On top of that there is a set of more parameters to tweak the forecast.
> All of them may have some influence in your case.
>
> What happens if you 'play' with those parameters?
>
> Oh, and to answer your question: the user list might be an appropriate
> place to ask (as is the forum) until we make sure, that this is really
> a software bug.
>
> Regards
>
> Thomas
>
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